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Get Back in Shape – Pharma Report 2012

When big pharma looks in the mirror, what does it see? A body beset by old, expiring brands and not enough energetic, youthful ones to replace them. Getting back into real shape will take a package of exercises that build muscle in more ways than one, analysts say.

Perhaps the most important trend to watch in terms of the industry’s comeback lies in new drug pipelines. These may be slowly improving, yet no company has more upcoming launches than expiries.

Sanford Bernstein analyst Tim Anderson tells MM&M:

“GlaxoSmithKline starts to get into positive territory because their patent expiries lapse. Pfizer—any drug that they launch, or that launched, [when] netted against expiry is a flat line.”

Even Bristol-Myers Squibb—widely hailed as the most productive biopharma company—winds up being a flat-liner.

Example

Anderson continues:

“If these Alzheimer’s drugs work [Lilly's solanezumab and J&J/Pfizer's bapineuzumab], they would put the industry back on the map, but scientists put the odds at less than 50%. These drugs could help resurrect the image of the industry.”

This category lacks a launchable drug in 2012 and is in lign with the most important trend mentioned above.

Pharma report 2012

Read the following in the Pharma report 2012:

  • Profiles of the top 20 companies as ranked by 2011 US sales
  • A list of each firm’s planned launches
  • Upcoming patent expirations